2026 Oscar Predictions: Will 'Wicked: For Good' Be the Rare Sequel to Get a Best Picture Nod?
Tepid reviews bode a rocky path forward for the 'Wicked' sequel.
Last year, you assembled the conclave. You overdosed on Challengers fan cams. And you still cringe at the mention of the name Emilia Pérez. Well good news, the Oscars have returned, and Jacob Elordi is still really tall! It’s the most wonderful time of the year for me – a time when I ask myself to let go of every personal feeling about the movies I’ve loved this year and own up to the fact that no, Tim Robinson is not going to win Best Actor for Friendship.
The Oscars are totally ridiculous and instigate artificial competition between movies that have nothing to do with each other except they were released in the same year (although if anyone can find a correlation between No Other Land and Wicked, get at me). And yet, if you’ve watched this space for the last however many years, you know I love trying to figure out what the hell is actually going to happen. So grab a few small beers, steer clear of river dancing vampires, and let’s fucking do this.
NOTE: I will only be including movies I HAVE SEEN in my predictions. I realize this may be annoying, but on principle it seems only fair.
BEST PICTURE
Wicked: For Good releases Friday, but the review embargo lifted yesterday, and the critical reaction is tepid. The consensus is that despite solid performances from Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, this is a bit of a disappointing follow-up to the film that became a crowd-pleasing sensation last season. That’s going to be a tough hurdle to clear come Oscar time; critics don’t vote on the Oscars, but perception is important, and since the expansion of the Best Picture field in 2009, only five sequels have been nominated - all of them perceived to be either as good as or better than their predecessors - Toy Story 3, Mad Max: Fury Road, Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick, and Dune: Part Two. So even though the Wicked sequel will no doubt make a ton of money over the next few months, I don’t know that it fits snugly in the company of any of those past nominees. To me, this is going to be another Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - some crafts nods, a supporting nod for Grande, but not a player in the Best Picture field.
That leaves an even bigger “blockbuster slot” opening for Avatar: Fire and Ash, which nobody has seen yet but, judging by James Cameron’s batting average, will likely secure a spot here just as the first two did. But it also leaves room for some of the other more bubble contenders, namely Bugonia, Train Dreams, No Other Choice, and Jay Kelly. Nearly all of these are a big question mark; Bugonia received mix reactions but has its passionate fans, and is holding very well at the box office. Jay Kelly seems neither a passion pick nor a critics favorite, yet is so industry-centric that I could see it sneaking in nonetheless. But my gut is telling me that Train Dreams and No Other Choice are headed for an early January late-breaking surge; Netflix, who has the former, pulled this off with All Quiet on the Western Front a few years back. And Neon, who has No Other Choice, has surely seen how that film plays in front of a crowd; sit a bunch of Academy voters down watch it and it could easily get in.
Elsewhere, One Battle After Another is still winning, I still haven’t seen Hamnet, and I think we can safely count in Sinners, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, and Frankenstein.
My predicted nominees:
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
It Was Just an Accident
Frankenstein
Train Dreams
No Other Choice
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
Other contenders: Wicked: For Good; Weapons; A House of Dynamite; Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere; The Smashing Machine; Nuremberg
I haven’t seen yet: Hamnet; Avatar: Fire and Ash; The Secret Agent; The Testament of Ann Lee; Is This Thing On?; Sound of Falling; Rental Family; Wake Up Dead Man
My wishful thinking: Eddington
BEST DIRECTOR
We’re seeing a trend of the Oscars celebrating long overdue filmmakers, two years ago with Christopher Nolan and last year with Sean Baker. That will be continuing this year, with 11 time Academy Award loser Paul Thomas Anderson finally getting his coronation.
Critics will likely take the opportunity to reward Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident or Ryan Coogler for Sinners; they seem mostly safe for nominations come Oscar time. I know some people are worried Coogler could get snubbed a la Greta Gerwig for Barbie or Denis Villeneuve for Dune. But I wouldn’t worry too much about that; Sinners is a wholly original passion project, more an auteur achievement like Everything Everywhere All At Once, a film which this branch had no trouble nominating.
Chloé Zhao will likely be taking a slot for Hamnet, but again, I haven’t seen it yet. After this, it gets a little tricky. Do the directors nominate Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value, or will that be rewarded more as an acting and writing achievement than a directorial one? Will they let Josh Safdie into the club for Marty Supreme? Could this be a good opportunity to nominate Park Chan-wook for No Other Choice? Or do they just default to Guillermo for Frankenstein?
My predicted nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Other contenders: Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein; Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice; Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia; Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly; Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite; Benny Safdie, The Smashing Machine; Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
I haven’t seen yet: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet; Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent; James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash; Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
My wishful thinking: Ari Aster, Eddington; Kelly Reichardt, The Mastermind
BEST ACTOR
We come to it at last, the great battle of our time: Timmy vs. Leo.
After just barely losing last year, Timmy’s in a prime position to pull it off this time. It’s a big, flashy performance in a movie that will be embraced by the Academy, and he’s riding the momentum of a big successful biopic performance last year and a SAG speech that let him say the quiet part out loud re: his search for “greatness.”
Whether or not the Academy lets him have it will entirely come down to the perception of his campaigning. I think there are a lot of people who admire his naked ambition and honesty about really wanting this. But the biggest branch of the Academy is made up of actors, 99% of whom will never have the time in the spotlight that Timmy regularly gets to enjoy. And I could see many of those people getting annoyed at his constant Oscar chasing, particularly when it’s paired with a movie very much about a cocky little shit obsessed with winning.
I’d anticipate Leo being a bit of a critics pick this year; New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and National Society of Film Critics have never rewarded him outside of his breakout role in What’s Eating, Gilbert Grape? And I get the sense that this could be a great opportunity to acknowledge his post-Oscar track record of giving some of the best performances of his career. Come Oscar time, I give the edge to Timmy. But it’s worth noting that this decade, if you’re the lead actor or actress nominated for the Best Picture winner, you’re winning the Oscar.
Of the other contenders, I’ve seen, I think Michael B. Jordan stands a very strong chance to get in for Sinners, although I could see him being a shocking and discourse-starting snub on nomination morning. There seems to be a growing wave of enthusiasm for Blue Moon and Ethan Hawke’s performance as Lorenz Hart - I could see that sneaking in. I think George Clooney for Jay Kelly and Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine may have to settle for Globe nods. And Jeremy Allen White seems to be lacking in passionate support for his performance in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, though you can never count out a music biopic performance.
My predicted nominees:
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Other contenders: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia; Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice; Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine; George Clooney, Jay Kelly; Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere; Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone; Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
I haven’t seen yet: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent; Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man; Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
My wishful thinking: Joaquin Phoenix, Eddington; Tim Robinson, Friendship; David Jonsson, The Long Walk; Josh O’Connor, The Mastermind; Liam Neeson, The Naked Gun
BEST ACTRESS
The last piece of the puzzle as to whether or not Jessie Buckley would have any major challenger to her win here was Cynthia Erivo in Wicked: For Good. But not only is she not winning, I think she’s in danger of missing a nomination, particularly since most of the reviews are singling out Grande as opposed to her. As I still haven’t seen Hamnet, I’m stubbornly not putting Jessie Buckley in yet and instead am focusing on the contenders I’ve seen who seem most likely to get in.
With that in mind, the only person I’ve seen at this moment that I feel confident will get in is Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value. My fingers are crossed for Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, and I imagine she’ll split critics prizes with Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee, another film I haven’t seen yet. But it can be tough to get in at the Oscars as the sole nomination for your movie, and this branch could always default to their fav Emma Stone for Bugonia.
The most interesting contender here is Chase Infiniti, a newcomer giving a borderline-supporting performance who could get in on pure passion for her film. I’m starting to think this is more and more a possibility, and that though she’s competing with women who are inarguably the faces of their movies, the love for One Battle is just going to sweep pretty much all of its actors in.
My predicted nominees:
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Other contenders: Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love; Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
I haven’t seen yet: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue; Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?; Sydney Sweeney, Christy; Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby; Jodie Foster, A Private Life; June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
My wishful thinking: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Like Javier Bardem in No Country For Old Men and Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds before him, Sean Penn seems poised to sweep the season for his instantly iconic, G.I. Joe-meets-Ellen Degeneres villain turn as Steve Lockjaw in One Battle After Another.
But there are a few wrenches here; upon release, I’m not sure his costar Benicio del Toro was considered a contender. But with the growing popularity of the film, and a decent amount of critics actually preferring del Toro to Penn, I think you gotta say One Battle will join recent films Three Billboards, The Irishman, and The Banshees of Inisherin in getting both of its supporting actors in.
It’s possible del Toro’s inclusion could siphon off votes from Penn, leaving room for Stellan Skarsgård to take it for Sentimental Value, or Paul Mescal for Hamnet (again, haven’t seen it yet). I would’ve assumed before seeing Jay Kelly that this might be Adam Sandler’s year, but the film is both polarizing and lacking in passion. Still, most people agree he’s the best part, and he could still get in even if the film doesn’t really rack up many other nominations.
The other major contenders I’m looking at here: Jacob Elordi, everybody’s favorite part of Frankenstein; Delroy Lindo, who was robbed a few years ago for Da 5 Bloods but could be the representative nominee of Sinners’ excellent ensemble; and Jeremy Strong for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, who wound up in this category last year despite not being in a Best Picture contender. I also just want it stated for the record that I would love an Andrew Scott Blue Moon nomination.
My predicted nominees:
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Other contenders: Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere; Andrew Scott, Blue Moon; Miles Caton, Sinners; Jack O’Connell, Sinners
I haven’t seen yet: Paul Mescal, Hamnet; Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
My wishful thinking: Ralph Fiennes, 28 Years Later
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana Grande has arrived, but I gotta say I’m not so convinced of the early buzz that this is hers to lose. While some reviewers are saying she runs away with the movie, it’s also a movie that (as noted above) is going to struggle at the Oscars far more than its predecessor. Grande pretty much needs Wicked: For Good to get a Best Picture nomination in order to win; since the expansion of the Picture field, only three women have won this award without one: Alicia Vikander, Allison Janney, and Regina King, all people with very different narratives than Grande.
Personally, I’m feeling more and more confident calling this for Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. Like a previous winner in a supporting category, Mahershala Ali in Moonlight, she’s the star of the first act of her film. And even as she disappears for the main body of the film, she’s impossible to forget. That said, she’s easily become the most discourse-attracting part of the movie, and it’s possible that this, combined with her early exit, could prevent a win.
Meanwhile, Amy Madigan seems poised to be the sole nominee for her film Weapons (maybe it gets Makeup, maybe Screenplay). To her benefit, she is the lone veteran comeback narrative of the season, an incredibly cool actress and former nominee who surprised everyone with one of the most iconic performances of the year. I expect critics will relish giving her wins in the first half of the season; but in order to win over actresses in major Best Picture contenders, she’s going to have to be a sweeper. I don’t see her ultimately pulling it off, but it’s certainly possible.
Moving Chase Infiniti into Best Actress opens up the possibility of a Regina Hall coattail nomination for One Battle, and if all six actors get in it’d be the most acting nominations ever for a film. Hall is beloved, as is the movie, but she’s also the one with the least to do; her inclusion would be dependent on an overwhelming love for One Battle, which is - it should be said - entirely possible. I think Sentimental Value is much more likely to get two nominations in this category though, for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning.
And right now, I’m looking out for Marty Supreme’s Odessa A’zion as a Monica Barbaro-esque spoiler. Gwyneth is the bigger star in that movie, but Odessa has more to do, and I could see her being a pleasant surprise for voters upon release.
My predicted nominees:
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Other contenders: Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme; Regina Hall, One Battle After Another; Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine; Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners
I haven’t seen yet: Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man
My wishful thinking: Marisa Abela, Black Bag
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I think this goes one of three ways:
A consolation prize of sorts for Ryan Coogler, rewarding Sinners as the most “original” of the nominees
Sentimental Value just sweeps the season in this category, as the most writerly achievement.
It Was Just an Accident surges early 2026, and this becomes a way to acknowledge Jafar Panahi
Either way, these three seem like locks, and I think you can throw in Marty Supreme for good measure.
My predicted nominees:
Sinners
Sentimental Value
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Blue Moon
Other contenders: Weapons; Jay Kelly; Sorry, Baby; Materialists; If I Had Legs I’d Kick You; A House of Dynamite; The Phoenician Scheme
I haven’t seen yet: The Secret Agent; Is This Thing On?; Rental Family; The Testament of Ann Lee
My wishful thinking: Friendship
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I suppose this could go to Hamnet ultimately, but I feel pretty comfortable calling this another win to add to One Battle’s package.
My predicted nominees:
One Battle After Another
No Other Choice
Frankenstein
Train Dreams
Nuremberg
I haven’t seen yet: Hamnet; Wake Up Dead Man; Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
My wishful thinking: 28 Years Later; The Long Walk
More to come.